You don't need to own a Kindle device to enjoy Kindle books. Download one of our FREE Kindle apps to start reading Kindle books on all your devices.

  • Apple
  • Android
  • Windows Phone
  • Android

To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number.

This title is not currently available for purchase
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by [Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan]
Kindle App Ad

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle Edition

4.3 out of 5 stars 4 customer reviews

See all formats and editions Hide other formats and editions
Amazon Price
New from Used from

Length: 355 pages Word Wise: Enabled Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
Page Flip: Enabled Language: English

Winter Sale
Save up to 70% on over 250 Kindle Books. Sale ends 27 August 2017 at 11:59 pm AEST. Shop now

Product description

Product Description

New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 3948 KB
  • Print Length: 355 pages
  • Publisher: Crown (29 September 2015)
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B00RKO6MS8
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars 4 customer reviews
click to open popover

Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
5 star
1
4 star
3
3 star
0
2 star
0
1 star
0
Share your thoughts with other customers
See all 4 customer reviews

Top customer reviews

on 5 October 2015
Format: Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase
0Comment| One person found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNoReport abuse
on 15 August 2016
Format: Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase
0Comment| One person found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you?YesNoReport abuse
on 30 January 2016
Format: Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase
0Comment|Was this review helpful to you?YesNoReport abuse
on 10 November 2015
Format: Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase
0Comment|Was this review helpful to you?YesNoReport abuse

Most helpful customer reviews on Amazon.com

Amazon.com: 4.3 out of 5 stars 275 reviews
213 people found this helpful.
2.0 out of 5 starsMore about superforecasters than about superforecasting
on 8 October 2015 - Published on Amazon.com
113 people found this helpful.
5.0 out of 5 starsThis book has a 100% probability of making you think!
on 29 August 2015 - Published on Amazon.com
Vine Customer Review of Free Product( What's this? )
5.0 out of 5 starsIt will challenge what you think you know
on 21 June 2017 - Published on Amazon.com
Verified Purchase

Where's My Stuff?

Delivery and Returns

Need Help?