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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by [Tetlock, Philip E., Gardner, Dan]
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle Edition

4.3 out of 5 stars 4 customer reviews

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Length: 355 pages Word Wise: Enabled Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
Page Flip: Enabled Language: English

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Product Description

New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.


From the Hardcover edition.

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 3948 KB
  • Print Length: 355 pages
  • Publisher: Crown (29 September 2015)
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B00RKO6MS8
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars 4 customer reviews
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If you're familiar with Tetlock's work on experts then you'll have already be aware that, when it comes to the future, experts don't always have a great track record. In this book, Tetlock examines what makes forecasts more likely to have merit and ways in which we can learn from our mistakes.
Well worth reading!
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If humility and a growth mindset are characteristics of superforecasters, as rightly asserted by the authors, then they qualify. This book is another example of the value of true expertise reflecting on the lessons of a lifetime. Readers from many expert backgrounds,for example, the "lean thinking" approach to process management will find resonance with the discussion on where knowledge is located. The content begs to be extended into the welfare [not financial] economic decision-making space which is currently so distorted by celebrity experts being listened to by our corporatist political representatives. Highly recommended.
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Very readable and thought provoking take on on only forecasting, but decision making in general.
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Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
A well researched assessment of prediction and those who claim to be expert.
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