- Hardcover: 336 pages
- Publisher: Marks, Howard (2 October 2018)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 1328479250
- ISBN-13: 978-1328479259
- Product Dimensions: 15.2 x 2.8 x 22.9 cm
- Boxed-product Weight: 499 g
- Average Customer Review: Be the first to review this item
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 2,665 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Other Sellers on Amazon
+ FREE Delivery
+ FREE Delivery
+ FREE Delivery
Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side Hardcover – 2 Oct 2018
Amazon Global Store
Frequently bought together
Customers who bought this item also bought
"Howard Marks's Mastering the Market Cycle is a must-read, because the cycles covered in this book are important and because Howard is one of the investing greats of his generation." --Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman, Bridgewater Associates
"I always say, 'There's no better teacher than history in determining the future.' Howard's book tells us how to learn from history . . . and thus get a better idea of what the future holds."--Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
"While most investment professionals take the standard out - that 'you can't time the market' - in Mastering the Market Cycle Howard Marks, a living investment legend, takes the contrarian point of view that not only can you time markets, but it's imperative that you do so."--Bill Gurley, General Partner, Benchmark
"Mastering the Market Cycle reveals how cycles not only coincide with, but also cause, financial market risk and opportunity. Written in plain English, Howard Marks's hard-earned wisdom will help readers tilt the odds in their favor."--Jeffrey Gundlach, Founder, DoubleLine Capital
"If you're uncertain as to whether there will be a correction in the market - or if you think there's no reason to worry because 'it's different this time' - you have to read this book before you make a move." --Carl C. Icahn, Chairman, Icahn Enterprises
Praise for Howard Marks's THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
"When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book." --Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway
About the Author
From the Publisher
A Note to Readers from Howard Marks, author of Mastering the Market Cycle
Investors clearly could do much better if they knew what lies ahead. But they can’t. Few people can accurately predict what the future holds in store for the economy and markets, and fewer still know enough about these things to out-think and thus out-invest the general consensus of investors whose views are incorporated into – 'discounted by' – the market prices of securities. But we know economies and markets follow an up-and-down pattern called a cycle and, importantly, knowing where we currently stand with regard to the economic cycle and the market cycle can give us a better idea of what lies ahead. This is a process through which investors can get the odds on their side.
When the economy is just beginning to recover from a slowdown and the markets are picking themselves up off the floor after a bust, it’s highly likely that security prices haven’t been lifted to precarious levels by large doses of investor optimism.
Pleasant surprises are more likely to lie ahead than disappointments; investors will probably come to be persuaded of these things over time and thus become buyers; and their buying should cause security prices to rise. At such a point – when economies and markets are low in their cycles – good things are more likely to lie ahead than bad things.
Since security prices aren’t inflated, buying at that point is likely to make for significant appreciation and entail little risk.
And on the contrary, when the recovery and bull market have been rolling for a while, investors are likely to be feeling good, and their optimism is likely to be incorporated in security prices.
Thus prices may be at risky highs; disappointments are more likely to lie ahead than good news; and thus risk may be high and appreciation hard to come by. All these things mean that when we’re high in the cycle, the odds are against you. When others feel good and drive prices to highs, it’s time to cut risk and take some of your money off the table.
In all these things, the operative words are 'likely' and probable.' So while we can’t know what the future holds, we can have a better idea whether the wind is at our back or in our face. The best investors have a sense for where we stand in the cycle and thus whether it’s time to build more aggressiveness or more defensiveness into their portfolios. This book will teach you what cycles are, what causes their rise and fall, and thus how to tell what investment moves are most likely to succeed.
Customers who viewed this item also viewed
No customer reviews
|5 star (0%)|
|4 star (0%)|
|3 star (0%)|
|2 star (0%)|
|1 star (0%)|
Review this product
Most helpful customer reviews on Amazon.com
Marks cites five critical cycles: 1) economic, 2) profits, 3) stock market 4) credit and 5) risk. An investor has to know where we are with respect to each of those cycles and most important is the risk cycle which is determined by the psychology of investors. Simply put are they greedy or are they fearful. Although this sounds easy in theory it is very difficult to implement. For example it is very hard to be bearish when the whole world is bullish, this I know from experience, and conversely it is even harder to be bullish when the whole world is bearish. It is at the extremes where the most money is to be made and where discipline is most needed.
The problem with implementing Marks’ ideas is that it is difficult to know how long a cycle will go on. Marks’ cites Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance speech of late 1996, only to witness the late 90s bull market to roar on for another three years. Although Marks was brilliant in backing up the truck in the credit markets at the height of the Lehman crisis in 2008, even he admits it was a close run thing and his success was dependent upon the efforts of Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner in stemming its worst effects.
Putting Marks’ ideas to use today I find that the current economic upswing is much closer to the end than the beginning, profit growth is certainly peaking, the credit market is wide open to most borrowers on very favorable terms and aside from the past few days in early October most investors remain bullish after a ten year bull market that quadrupled the major stock market indices, and investors seem oblivious to global macro and political risks. Thus the way I read Marks it is at least time to be cautious and consequently a time to de-risk portfolios.
Making one last point, I wish Marks cited the late Hyman Minsky who noted that stability leads to instability and although he didn’t directly state the converse, instability leads to stability. That would be Marks in a nutshell. Although too long and too repetitive “Mastering the Market Cycle” is worth the read. There is much wisdom here.
In many ways, Marks is a very quirky writer. As other folks have noted, he does repeat things from time to time, and his style is so easy going you might be tempted to think it is simplistic - but don't make this insanely bad mistake. Marks is easy to read because he covers his material and thoughts with absolute precision, because he has thought long and hard about what to say, and the continuous repetition occurs because that's how things work in life - they are interconnected. Besides, repetition in this manner is EXACTLY how you want a complicated topic to be taught, and Marks is a master at instruction.
Course, I have another reason for getting excited about this book - I recognize the scared frightened investor I was in 2008 and 2009, and if I'd read this book - or all those Memo's - and actually internalized them I'm next to certain my results would have been much improved. And isn't that what we want in our investment books - an improvement in our technique? I can think of no higher compliment.
This is a phenomenal book and if you manage money for a living you'd be a fool not to read it, and if you invest for yourself you are going to learn a lot. I mean, a lot - and you are going to reread this thing again and again. This is a VERY deep thinking book by a guy with a lot to teach, and opportunities like this one don't come along very often.
And you get this wisdom and knowledge for $18? Absolutely crazy - thanks to the author, thank you very much.
Everything he had to say could have been said in a 50 page pamphlet. The book was nothing but mind numbing repetition of the same information about public sentiment and the markets. I should have known that a book about cycles would be highly repetitive.
Using public sentiment will get out too early, or too late. at the tops and bottoms. The only cycle indicator he missed is the indicator for market highs is when every Tom, Dick, or Harry who just happened to make money start thinking themselves a genius and have to start publishing books to document their genius.
For free, you can go to YouTube and watch a guy named Sam Seiden demonstrate his trading methods. You can actually watch them work.
Look for similar items by category