This revised and updated edition of the bestselling book on financial modeling provides the tools and techniques needed to perform spreadsheet simulation. It answers the essential question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, for any problem posed in finance and investment. This reliable resource reviews the basics and covers how to define and refine probability distributions in financial modeling, and explores the concepts driving the simulation modeling process. It also discusses simulation controls and analysis of simulation results.
The second edition of Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel contains instructions, theory, and practical example models to help apply risk analysis to such areas as derivative pricing, cost estimation, portfolio allocation and optimization, credit risk, and cash flow analysis. It includes the resources needed to develop essential skills in the areas of valuation, pricing, hedging, trading, risk management, project evaluation, credit risk, and portfolio management.
- Offers an updated edition of the bestselling book covering the newest version of Oracle Crystal Ball
- Contains valuable insights on Monte Carlo simulation—an essential skill applied by many corporate finance and investment professionals
- Written by John Charnes, the former finance department chair at the University of Kansas and senior vice president of global portfolio strategies at Bank of America, who is currently President and Chief Data Scientist at Syntelli Solutions, Inc. Risk Analytics and Predictive Intelligence Division (Syntelli RAPID)
Engaging and informative, this book is a vital resource designed to help you become more adept at financial modeling and simulation.
From the Back Cover
Praise for the previous edition
"Professor Charnes's book drives clarity into applied Monte Carlo analysis using examples and tools relevant to real-world finance. The book will prove useful for analysts of all levels and as a supplement to academic courses in multiple disciplines."
?Mark Odermann, Senior Financial Analyst, Microsoft
"Think you really know financial modeling? This is a must-have for power Excel users. Professor Charnes shows how to make more realistic models that result in fewer surprises. Every analyst needs this credibility booster."
?James Franklin, CEO, SendGrid
"This book packs a first-year MBA's worth of financial and business modeling education into a few dozen easy-to-understand examples. Crystal Ball software does the housekeeping, so readers can concentrate on the business decision. A careful reader who works the examples on a computer will master the best general-purpose technology available for working with uncertainty."
?Aaron Brown, Risk Manager, AQR Capital Management, and author of The Poker Face of Wall Street and Red-Blooded Risk
"Using Crystal Ball and Excel, John Charnes takes you step by step, demonstrating a conceptual framework that turns static Excel data and financial models into true risk models. I am astonished by the clarity of the text and the hands-on, step-by-step examples using Crystal Ball and Excel; Professor Charnes is a masterful teacher, and this is an absolute gem of a book for the new generation of analyst."
?Brian Watt, Chief Operating Officer, GECC, Inc.
"Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel is a comprehensive, well-written guide to one of the most useful analysis tools available to professional risk managers and quantitative analysts. This is a must-have book for anyone using Crystal Ball, and anyone wanting an overview of basic risk management concepts."
?Paul Dietz, Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Westar Energy
"John Charnes presents an insightful exploration of techniques for analysis and understanding of risk and uncertainty in business cases. By application of real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation to planning, doors are opened to analysis of what used to be impossible, such as modeling the value today of future project choices."
?Bruce Wallace, former Director of Technology Strategy and Investments, Nortel
The Second Edition of Financial Modeling with Oracle® Crystal Ball and Excel®+ Website puts an emphasis on practical application. To that end, this book provides readers with exclusive access to a companion website filled with supplementary materials, allowing you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book.