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China's Crisis of Success Kindle Edition
'William H. Overholt has been watching Asia for half a century, mostly making observations that run against the tide. His 1993 The Rise of China was heavily criticized at the time, but proved correct. Now, Overholt sees a real need for a change in the model that has brought China so much success economically; it must become more consumption oriented, less reliant on investment, it must move from manufacturing to services, and it must upgrade its manufacturing. These are all complex challenges that carry substantial risks. Overholt lays out these challenges with his usual clear sightedness.' Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University
'William Overholt, who may have been the first to identify the 'rise of China' in his 1993 book of that name, goes straight to the heart of the puzzles presented by contemporary China. … This is an eye-opening book that debunks many established notions held by disciplinary academics, as well as by policymakers both in China and the West.' Gilles Andréani, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
- ASIN : B07813S9WV
- Publisher : Cambridge University Press (31 December 2017)
- Language : English
- File size : 1937 KB
- Simultaneous device usage : Up to 4 simultaneous devices, per publisher limits
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Print length : 293 pages
- Page numbers source ISBN : 1108421695
- Best Sellers Rank: 358,479 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- Customer Reviews:
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If someone asked me for a book to describe *why* China has been successful, this is it. If someone asked me for a book on China’s future, I’m not convinced that this is the book.
“China is on the cusp of greatness, stagnation or tragedy, and the risks are so high that small, unexpected events could make the difference. That is the defining quality of China’s crisis of success.”*
This is a period he has seen unfold before in four nations as the Asian’s Tigers were developing from crude authoritarian roots (Japan post war) to impressive ‘democratic beings;’ and now he is using that back drop to appraise China’s possible direction under Xi Jinping’s dominate leadership as it moves from an export driven world factory to technological assembler and designer of high end products with its own rapidly rising middle class – a different world but much the same Leninist one party political system – how stable is that?
There is evidence of the development of democratic governments evolving out of the authoritarian Asian model when a certain level of middle class income is reached (So. Korea, Taiwan and Singapore). China has achieved that level of development but is moving under Xi Jinping toward a more restrictive authoritarian system in many ways; Overholt’s understanding of these issues and their causes is unsurpassed. Unlike many authorities he has spent on sight time observing the noted events and interacted with their agents; don’t miss his footnotes!
His Comparative Analysis on the topic of Corruption in all the countries he knows is worth the price of admission.
This is a book you will enjoy regardless of your former understanding of China.**
* Published 2018 before Xi Jinping winning demise of Presidential term limitation in 3/18.
**There is a recent publication that also sees China entering a critical stage: Carl Minzner, End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise. Both are excellent.
The US has only 5% of the people, and our children and grandchildren are going to rise or fall depending on their ability to connect with Asia’s 60%.
You may know that film-making in the US is already focused on China as the difference between making money and making big money – the same is true or becoming true in other cultural areas. Overholt emphasizes that “. . . the center of gravity of the world of fashion, art, and music will shift toward China. Currently the center of gravity of the global market is still the American baby boomer. In the future it will be millennial Chinese.” (p.98)
In many product areas, the new imperative for American companies is “globalize or be eaten.” Even in social media – “WeChat . . . has already leaped ahead . . , despite government censorship, and has been consistently more versatile than its Western counterparts (Facebook, Twitter, Gmail). It will create scale that overwhelms Western competitors who do not advance into China.” (p. 98)
Overholt describes the new power of women -- “As one travels throughout China, one constantly meets powerful women mayors and women Party Secretaries [the key decision-makers in every jurisdiction] . . . their pervasive importance is in sharp contrast both with China’s past and with many other emerging economies.” (pp. 135-6)
All the successes above - and many others Overholt describes - have brought China to a crisis — China’s Crisis of Success. Mr. Xi has pursued corruption and pollution in a way that challenges all the newly created power groups of the reform decades - “Xi Jinping’s administration has chosen to take on every major power group in Chinese society simultaneously . . .”
Overholt lists ten major areas where Xi is trapped tactically in contradictions. For example, to reverse the horrendous pollution created recently, he needs popular help across the country - and support against the newly powerful polluters. At the same time, Xi wants to keep his Communist Party ahead of the curve. He wants his popular support to be strong enough to help him, yet neither so strong nor so bold as to threaten him or get ahead of him.
Keeping track of China’s responses to these contradictions will give you an edge in understanding how Asia’s biggest economy. Remember, the U.S. is 5%, Asia is 60%.
[ US exports to South Korea were $ 48.3 billion in 2017 - France bought only $ 33.6 bn from us. US exports to China were $ 130.4 bn and will rise further as they lower their trade barriers.]
Your grandchildren will thank you when they benefit from China’s Crisis of Success - buy it and read it right away.