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Australia: Boom to Bust: The Great Australian Credit and Property Bubble by [David, Lindsay]
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Australia: Boom to Bust: The Great Australian Credit and Property Bubble Kindle Edition


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"How much longer can the China construction boom last?"

“At the height of the Global Financial Crisis, the American banking system was too big to fail. Today, the Australian banking system is too big to save.”

After almost 10 years living abroad, former strategy consultant and GreenRigCo co-founder Lindsay David returns to his native Australia. His years of macroeconomic research suggests that Australia is in the midst of one of the biggest credit and property bubbles in modern Western history—bubbles that are supported by the largest credit bubble in human history, the one that has been brewing in China.

Australia: Boom to Bust dives deeply into the plausible collapse of the “Three Pillars” of the Australian economy: Banks, Natural Resources and Real Estate. Lindsay David provides unique commentary on the true state of the Australian economy and identifies major defects in the structures of the Three Pillars. Toxic levels of private sector debt sponsored by Australia's largest banks has managed to flood already-inflated asset classes of the Pillars on the back of a once-in-a-lifetime construction boom and property bubble in China. Compelling data and research suggests that the Australian economy has lost touch with reality and has gambled away its banking system to propel the mining and property markets into unchartered waters.

​Powerful Australian property and banking pundits have successfully led Australians to believe that the unusually high cost of real estate is justified. The pundits tell us that Australia is simply “different.” Pundits love to use the word “boom,” but they rarely use the word “bust.” When a country as a whole and its cities lack density alongside a median house price that is more than six times the median household income, there is only one word that can describe the true state of the Australian property sector—bubble. The domestic banking sector in Australia learned absolutely nothing from past economic downturns in Japan, America, Spain and Ireland. Unfortunately, it will suffer the same sad fate that its northern-hemisphere peers did, as history has a good track record of repeating itself. The warnings signs of a toxic Australian credit bubble could not be any clearer—they have simply been ignored.

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 865 KB
  • Print Length: 228 pages
  • Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited
  • Sold by: Amazon Australia Services, Inc.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B00JJ7UW0S
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (31 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #30,826 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

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This is the most frightening horror story I have ever read. I have been a long time china watcher and have been very conscious of the likely flow on effects to the Australian of a serious slow down in the China economy. I have also watched the Australian property market in disbelief for many years as the bubble grows ever bigger and the pundits deny with increasing conviction that the Australian market is different to all others. But I had not considered the perilous state of the banking sector and the interconnection with the other two events. As I write the iron ore price is falling, the Chinese economy is slowing, the Reserve Bank Governor is pondering aloud about macro prudential controls. Whether this is the beginning of the end or not the writing is on the wall. Lindsay David cogently lays all the facts out. When the great unravelling does come many will claim that nobody saw it coming but people who read this book will know that is not true.
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Backs up with data the gut feeling that you have when you come live in Australia (i've been here for 8 years). I particularly agree when he uses the Disneyland analogy... Australia is indeed Disneyland. Everyone has good a job, everyone can afford an insane mortgage, everyone thinks prices will never come down... it's just unrealistic.

My colleagues and I also from overseas shared this gut feeling but we were of course not qualified in any way to provide a solid opinion. Lindsay does it in a straightforward, now judgmental and factual based way. I am a systems analyst and this book appeals to me for it's logic and rational way of coming up with conclusions... as bad as they may be.

I was about to invest heavily on real estate but after reading the book I've decided to remain liquid and keep my cash in the bank, perhaps even buy USD or commodities.
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There is a good deal of insight in this book. However the political analysis is flawed. The author gives top marks to Howard/Costello, when the greatest increase in mortgage debt and price to income ratio occurred under their watch. Public statements made by John Howard show that he was entirely comfortable with this situation. Mistakes were made under Labor, especially the doubling of the first home owners grant. I was also surprised that the author apparently had no knowledge of the work of Prof. Steve Keen, who has been contributing scholarly articles on this topic for several years.
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Well structure and easy to understand. Lindsay prevents a controversial opinion but is backed by solid opinion. He covers why the property market is in a bubble. He contends that this market isn't different as has been suggested by many Australians. The portion on bank leveraging and their similarity between the Big 4s accounts and Lehman Brothers was particularly confronting.

Although the book is a little on the short side and lacks hyper linked sources/annotations. It's still a good read and I strongly recommend it.
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I have read this book three times.

When I arrived here (Melbourne) three years ago I quickly got a very uncomfortable feeling that something is very wrong with the Australian economy. The population is maniacally obsessed with property beyond belief. Any random European or American will very likely pass out when hearing about the sort of debts that people take on here.

It is simply impossible to have a rational discussion on real estate in Australia. The social pressure that exists here to mortgage your life away (instead of being wise and renting and saving) is undescribable. My congratulations to the young Australians that keep on withstanding this pressure!

It is one thing that the vast majority of the Australian population has not learned a single thing from the Global Financial Crisis. But it is unforgivable that the Australian Government and the Central Bank never did anything to stop this insanity. On the contrary, they did all they could to keep on blowing air into the property bubble.

In addition to this real estate horror, the country produces, apart from digging up pieces of Australia and shipping them to China, ... nothing.

This book confirms with numbers and facts the gut feeling that I have been having for three years now.

It is a real pity because Australia is truly a fabulous country to live in. People are very friendly and one can make good friends, but it is very sad that the nation has been mislead so much.

A few years from now this book will probably be on the reading list of every singly economics department or program in the country.

Congratulations to the author for a job very well done!
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What is most fascinating about this book is how the parallels with other bubble-busts are clearly illustrated but these parallels are being ignored by the custodians of the economy in Australia.

Having gone through one property crash makes you more sensitive to the variables when another is possibly pending. Australia is an open economy greatly dependent of export of primary resources for much of its success. It is an incredibly high cost economy in which to live or do business. By normal yardsticks its residential property is overvalued - by how much is the great conundrum. A major external shock could have a massive impact and could decrease property prices by 10-50% in a short time. On the other hand that shock may not come, or if it does it may not be as shocking as feared, Australia's government debt is still relatively low and the country could withstand some significant borrowing if pushed. However, the budget deficit is a major concern and if government revenue fell off a cliff then the economy could be in very serious trouble. Strangely this has happened in several developed economies elsewhere in the past 7 years but there is no debate going on and that in itself is scary.

Most fears are not real and this crash may not happen, but if it does the RBA would rightly take alot of flak for not reining in bank personal and property lending. Mr. David clearly shows that excess credit drives up property prices and that fact alone should be taken very seriously.
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